Ha Mokete oa Selemo o ntse o atamela, litsebi tsa khoebo ea kantle ho naha li se li le haufi le ho kena fensetereng ea bohlokoa ea selemo le selemo - eQalo e matla ea kotara ea pele ea 2026. Ho qalisoa hape ha mosebetsi kamora matsatsi a phomolo, ho tlatswa ha thepa e bolokiloeng kantle ho naha, ho qalisoa ha lihlahisoa tse ncha tsa khoebo ea inthanete selemo le selemo, le maqhubu a kopaneng a theko mebarakeng e ntseng e hola, hammoho le ho hlophisoa bocha ha ketane ea phepelo ea lefats'e, tlhoko e ntseng e eketseha ea AI le matla a macha, le liphetoho tsa sebopeho litseleng tsa ho romela thepa le sekhahla sa thepa —Ho khetha mefuta e nepahetseng ea lihlahisoa, ho beha nako ea ho tsamaea ha hao ka nepo, le ho boloka sebaka sa thepa esale pele ho tla beha molumo o tobileng bakeng sa ts'ebetso ea selemo..
I. 2026 Q1 Sebaka sa Khoebo ea Kantle ho Naha: Tsoelo-pele e Tsitsitseng ka Ntlafatso ea Meaho
•Kgolo ka Kakaretso: Goldman Sachs o bolela esale pele hore kgolo ya China ya thekiso ya thepa kantle ho naha (e nang le USD) e tla fihla ho 5.6% ka 2026, ka bongata ba thepa e romellwang kantle ho naha bo boloka kgolo ya ho feta 5%, e bontshang ho tiya ho hoholo.
•Tsepamiso ea Sebopeho: Tlhahiso ea lisebelisoa, liindasteri tsa theknoloji e phahameng, matla a macha, le khoebo ea inthanete e tšelang meeli li ntse li etella pele; kholo ea thekiso ea thepa e mahareng le ea motse-moholo e feta ea thepa ea bareki haholo.
•Sebaka sa 'Maraka: ASEAN pele, Bochabela bo Hare / Russia / Afrika kholo e phahameng, Europe le US li bontša ho hlaphoheloa ho tsitsitseng.
•Lintlha tsa Bohlokoa: Ka 2025, boleng bohle ba thepa e romelloang kantle ho naha ba Chaena bo fihlile ho RMB 26.99 trillion, e leng keketseho ea selemo le selemo ea 6.1%; thepa e romelloang kantle ho naha ea tlhahiso ea lisebelisoa e fihlile ho RMB 16.03 trillion, e leng keketseho ea 9.2%, e leng se etsang 59.4% ea thepa eohle e romelloang kantle ho naha.
•Litšobotsi tsa thepa: Bokhoni ba ho romela thepa bo fokotsehile pele ho matsatsi a phomolo, bo hlaphoheloa kapele ka mor'a moo; ho feto-fetoha ha litsela tsa Asia-Europe/Mediterranean, linako tse tsitsitseng tsa ho palama ho ea Asia Boroa-bochabela/Bochabela bo Hare.
II. Lihlopha tsa Bohlokoa tsa Q1 ea 2026 bakeng sa Qalo e Matla
1. "Tse Tharo tse Ncha": Enjene e ka Sehloohong bakeng sa Selemo, Kgolo e Phahameng e Tsitsitseng Kotareng ya Pele
Likoloi tsa motlakase (li-EV), libeteri tsa lithium, le likarolo tsa photovoltaic (PV) li ntse li le tsona tse susumetsang kholo e matla bakeng sa ho romela thepa kantle ho naha. Ho tlatsetsoa hape kantle ho naha ka mor'a matsatsi a phomolo, hammoho le tlhoko e matla ea leano le meralo ea motheo.
Lintlha tsa Bohlokoa:
• Kakaretso ea kakaretso ea thepa e romeloang kantle ho naha ea "Lintho tse Tharo tse Ncha" ka 2025 e atametseRMB 1.3 trilione, eKeketseho ea makhetlo a 3.5 ho feta lilemo tse 5holimo27.1%selemo le selemo.
•Likoloi tse Ncha tsa Matla: Ho fihletsoe thepa e romelloang kantle ho nahaDiyuniti tse limilione tse 2.315likhoeling tse 11 tsa pele tsa 2025,+ 102.9%selemo le selemo; theko e tloaelehileng ea yunitiUSD 20,000–30,000Boleng ba ho romela kantle ho naha ba kgwedi e le nngwe ka Tshitwe+71.7%selemo le selemo.
•Libetri tsa Lithium: Boleng ba kantle ho naha ba 2025RMB 570.86 bilione,+ 24.4%selemo le selemo; Li-export tse romelloang kantle ho naha ka Pherekhong-LoetseLidolara tse libilione tse 55.38 tsa Amerika,+ 26.8%selemo le selemo.
•Li-photovoltaic: Liromello tse rometsoeng kantle ho naha li fetileRMB limilione tse likete tse 200ka dilemo tse 4 tse latellanang; tlhokeho e matla ya ho boloka seteishene sa motlakase sa mose ho maoatle kotareng ya pele.
Limmaraka tsa Bohlokoa: ASEAN, Bochabela bo Hare, Russia, Afrika Leboea, Amerika Boroa
Lintlha tsa Bohlokoa tsa Thepa:
•Li-NEV: Likepe tsa Ro-Ro / li-rack tse bataletseng, phatlalatso ea thepa e kotsi, laesense ea kantle ho naha, tumello ea lekhetho la libaka tseo u eang ho tsona
•Libetri tsa Lithium: UN38.3, setifikeiti sa thepa e kotsi, sephutheloana se lekanyelitsoeng, sebaka se khethehileng sa mohala
•Li-photovoltaic: Moroalo o felletseng oa setshelo haholo-holo, ela hloko fensetere ea tokiso ea sebopeho bakeng sa litefiso tsa puseletso ea VAT
Ponelopele ea Kotara ea Pele: Kgolo ea selemo le selemo e bolokiloe ho25%–40%; sebaka se tiileng sa setshelo se fana ka maikutloho fumana sebaka pele ho matsatsi a phomolo.
2. Electronics & ICT: Ho Khutlisa Semiconductor e Matla e Tsamaiswang ke AI (Khōlo e Phahameng e Hlakileng)
E tsamaisoa ke li-server tsa AI, litsi tsa data, le tlatsetso ea thepa ea lisebelisoa tsa elektroniki tsa bareki,lipotoloho tse kopantsoeng, lik'homphieutha, lisebelisoa tsa puisano, le liphanele tsa lipontšoli utloa ho kgutlela morao ho matla.
Lintlha tsa Bohlokoa:
• Boleng ba ho romela kantle ho naha ba potoloho e kopaneng ya Tshitwe 2025+47.7%selemo le selemo,ho feta difouno tsa thekeng e le sehlahisoa se seholo ka ho fetisisa se romelloang kantle ho naha.
• Sekhahla sa kgolo sa kgwedi e le nngwe bakeng sa dikhomphutha le disebediswa tsa puisano tse se nang mohala se fihlile89.2%le66.9%ka ho latellana; ho romela kantle ho naha difouno tsa thekeng+41.2%.
• Thepa e tsoang kantle ho naha ea lisebelisoa tse amanang le AI e ile ea hola48.3%–89.2%, e leng se kgannang kgolo e kgolo ya thepa e romelwang kantle ho naha ya ICT ke China.
Limmaraka tsa Bohlokoa: USA, Europe, Asia Boroa-bochabela, Japane, Korea Boroa
Lintlha tsa Bohlokoa tsa Thepa: Thepa ea boleng bo holimo e rata thepa ea moea / likepe tse potlakileng, taolo ea mocheso le mongobo, ho latela ka botlalo, tiisetso ea tšenyo e tlase.
Ponelopele ea Kotara ea Pele: Sehla se phahameng sa thepa ea elektroniki; litheko tsa thepa ea moea li nyoloha nako le nako ka Hlakola-Hlakubele; sekhahla sa kholo30%+.
3. Mechini le Kaho ea Likepe: Litšenyehelo tse Matla tsa Taelo, Liromello tse Tsoang Linaheng Tse Ling Tse Tiileng Haholo
Mechine e akaretsang, lienjene, lisebelisoa tsa lapeng, le kaho ea likepeho rua molemo ho tsosolosong ea indasteri ea lefats'e le kholo e phahameng ea li-odara tse saletseng morao, ka ho romelloa ho kopaneng kotara ea pele.
Lintlha tsa Bohlokoa:
• Ho fihlelletswe kantle ho naha ha dihlahiswa tsa mechini le tsa motlakase ka 2025RMB 12.07 trillionholimo9.6%, e ikarabellang bakeng sa60.5%ea thepa eohle e romelloang kantle ho naha.
• Thepa ea mantlha joalo kalikepe, lijenereithara, lipompo, li-compressore kentse letsoho ka lintlha tsa peresente tse 0.4–1 ho kgolo yohle ya diromelwantle.
Lihlopha tsa Bohlokoa: Lipompo, li-compressor, lijenereithara, li-air conditioner tsa malapeng, mechini ea ho hlatsoa, sehatsetsi sa khoebo, likepe tsa lijana / litanka
Limmaraka tsa Bohlokoa: ASEAN, Bochabela bo Hare, Afrika, Amerika Boroa, Europe
Lintlha tsa Bohlokoa tsa Thepa: Matlafatso bakeng sa thepa e meholo, liraka tse bataletseng / li-top tse bulehileng, ho tlosoa ha thepa ka har'a letlooa le kopaneng le literaka.
Ponelopele ea Kotara ea Pele: Tiisetso e phahameng, likonteraka tse ngata tsa nako e telele; sekhahla sa kholo8%–12%, e loketse moralo oa sebaka sa nako e telele.
4. Lintho tsa Bohlokoa tsa Khoebo ea E-Cross-Meeli: Ho Qala Lihlahisoa tse Ncha tsa Selemo + Tšebeliso ea Matsatsi a Phomolo, Kholo e Potlakileng ea Liodara tse Nyenyane, tse Potlakileng
Ho qalisoa ha lihlahisoa tse ncha tsa mose ho maoatle nakong ea selemo, sehla sa ho khutlela sekolong, ntjhafatso ea matlo le mesebetsi ea kantle, hammoho le kholo e phahameng ea khoebo ea inthanete Asia Boroa-bochabela, Russia le Bochabela bo Hare —lintho tse nyane tse bobebe, thepa e tsamaisoang ka potlako ea bareki, lihlahisoa tsa lapeng, le lisebelisoa tse nyanere tswela pele ho bona bongata ba ditaelo tse phatlohang.
Lintlha tsa Bohlokoa:
• Sekala sa thekiso ea thepa ea inthanete sa Chaena se lebeletsoe ho fihlaRMB 3.2 trillionka 2026, e ikarabellang bakeng sa28%ea kakaretso ea thepa e romelloang kantle ho naha.
• 'Maraka oa khoebo ea inthanete oa Asia Boroa-bochabela o tla fetaLidolara tse limilione tse likete tse 150 tsa Amerikaka 2026, ka kgolo ya selemo le selemo ya15%Kholo ea khoebo ea elektroniki ea Indonesia22%India17.6%.
• Liakhaonto tsa khoebo ea inthanete tsa B2B tse tšelang meeli bakeng sa hoo e ka bang70%, ka kgolo e phahameng haholo ho feta B2C; Bongata ba thepa ya kotara ya pele+30%+khoeli le khoeli.
Lihlopha tsa Bohlokoa: Litlhoko tsa letsatsi le letsatsi tsa lelapa, lintho tsa polokelo, lisebelisoa tse nyane, lisebelisoa tsa kichine, boikhathollo ba kantle, lisebelisoa tsa lipapali, liaparo tsa selemo, lisebelisoa tsa liphoofolo tse ruuoang lapeng, lisebelisoa tsa 3C
Limmaraka tsa Bohlokoa: Asia Boroa-bochabela (Lebenkele la TikTok), Russia, Bochabela bo Hare, khoebo ea inthanete ea lehae
Lintlha tsa Bohlokoa tsa Thepa: Sebaka sa polokelo sa mose ho maoatle bakeng sa ho boloka thepa, liphutheloana tse nyane tse inehetseng, tšebeletso ea DDP, linako tse tsitsitseng tsa lipalangoang, tahlehelo e tlase ea ho khutla.
Ponelopele ea Kotara ea PeleBongata ba thepa ea khoebo ea elektroniki+30%+khoeli le khoeli; litheko tsa lik'hilomithara tsa ho qetela lia eketseha ka mokhoa o itekanetseng.
5. Lintho tsa Bohlokoa tsa Mariha le Thepa ea Bareki e Tsamaeang ka Potlako: Russia / Bochabela bo Hare / Fensetere ea Phetisetso ea Europe
Pherekgong-Hlakubele e ntse e le nako ya ho futhumatsa Karolong e ka Leboya ya Lefatshe.lisebelisoa tsa ho futhumatsa, masela a futhumetseng a lapeng, liaparo tse teteaneng le lisebelisoa tse nyanee ntse e le matla Russia, Europe Bochabela le Asia Bohareng.
Lintlha tsa Bohlokoa:
• Kgolo ya thepa e romelwang kantle ho naha ho ya Russia le Asia Bohareng e fetile15%+bakeng sa dikotara tse ngata tse latellanang; tlhokeho e matla ya disebediswa tsa ho futhumatsa, dikobo tsa motlakase, dijakete tse theohelang.
• Kgolo ea 2025 ea ho romela kantle ho naha ho ea ASEAN11.1%, Amerika boroa9.8%Afrika13.7%; ho mamella ka matla thepa ea bareki mebarakeng e ntseng e hola.
Lihlopha tsa Bohlokoa: Li-heater tsa motlakase, likobo tsa motlakase, lijakete tse theohelang, likobo, lisebelisoa tse nyane tsa maemo a Europe
Litlhoko tsa Bohlokoa: Litifikeiti tse felletseng (CE/EAC/GOST), ho ikamahanya le maemo a motlakase, ho paka ho latela melao
Lintlha tsa Bohlokoa tsa ThepaLiterene tse pakeng tsa China le Russia, mela e potlakileng ea thepa ea moea, linako tse tsitsitseng tsa lipalangoang tsa koung ea mobu.
Ponelopele ea Kotara ea Pele: Ho tlatswa hape ka botlalo nakong ya kgwedi e le nngwe kamora matsatsi a phomolo; thepa e se nang setifikeiti se nepahetseng e kotsing ya ho hanelwa.
6. Lihlahisoa tsa Temo le Lijo tse Lokisitsoeng: Tse Hlokomelang Bophelo bo Botle, Tse Loketseng, Tse Holimo ASEAN / Amerika Leboea
Lijo tse lokisitsoeng, liprotheine tse thehiloeng limela, lihlahisoa tsa metsing, tee, le lihlahisoa tse khethehileng tsa temoRua molemo mekhoeng ea ho ja lijo tse phetseng hantle le tlhoko ea bareki ba Chaena ba mose ho maoatle. Ketane e batang le ho latela melao ke meeli ea mantlha.
Lintlha tsa Bohlokoa:
• Ho romelwa kantle ho naha ha dihlahiswa tsa temo ho boloka kgolo e tsitsitseng ya5%–8%tlhoko ea setshelo sa ketane e batang+ 12%selemo le selemo.
• 'Maraka oa liphoofolo tse ruuoang lapeng lefatšeng ka bophara o lebelletsoe ho atamelaLidolara tse limilione tse likete tse 500ka 2026, ka kgolo ya selemo le selemo ya6%–8%; ho romelwa kantle ho naha ha dihlahiswa tsa diphoofolo tse ruuwang lapeng ho hola ka nako e le nngwe.
Lihlopha tsa Bohlokoa: Lihlahisoa tsa soya, lihlahisoa tsa metsing, lijo tse lokisitsoeng, tee, linate, linoko
Limmaraka tsa Bohlokoa: ASEAN, USA, Canada, Australia, Europe
Lintlha tsa Bohlokoa tsa Thepa: Lijana tsa ketane e batang, ho latela taolo ea mocheso, tlhahlobo ea thepa le ho kenya thepa ea lekgetho, ho latela melao ea leibole.
Ponelopele ea Kotara ea Pele: Kgolo e tsitsitseng, sekgahla se phahameng sa ho reka thepa, e loketse ho romelwa ha thepa ka nako e telele ho tsitsitseng.
III. Limmaraka tsa Bohlokoa tsa Kotara ea 2026 le Menyetla ea Litsela
1. ASEAN (Molekane e Moholo ka ho Fetisisa oa Khoebo)
• Sekhahla sa kgolo se lebelletsweng sa9.4%ka 2026.
• Linako tse potlakileng tsa ho tsamaisa thepa, theko e tlase, le bophahamo ba thepa bo tsitsitseng.
• Thomello e tebileng eathepa ea lapeng, 3C, mechini, thepa ea khoebo ea inthanete.
Melemo:Seporo sa Sea-Terene, Lipalangoang tsa Mefuta e mengata tsa Lefatše.
2. Russia le Asia Bohareng
• Tlhokeho e kgolo yaho futhumatsa, lisebelisoa tsa ka tlung, thepa ea bareki e tsamaeang ka potlako.
• Sekhahla sa kgolo15%+.
• Haholo-hololiterene, thepa ea sefofane, lipalangoang tsa mobu.
• Bohlokoa: Ho latela melao le setifikeiti.
3. Bochabela bo Hare
• Tlhoko e matla eaeneji e ncha, meralo ea motheo, lisebelisoa tsa motlakase, lisebelisoa tsa elektroniki.
• Sekhahla sa kgolo10%–15%.
•Thepa e tsamaisoang ka sekepe ka kotloloho + polokelo ea thepa ea mose ho maoatlebakeng sa tlholisano e kholoanyane.
4. Yuropa (Litsela tsa Mediterranean / Asia-Europe)
• Ho romela thepa kantle ho naha ho ea Europe ho ea holimo8.1%likhoeling tse 11 tsa pele tsa 2025; pholoho e ntse e tsoela pele ka 2026.
• Lihlopha tse ka sehloohong:Matla a macha, lisebelisoa tsa elektroniki, mechine.
• Ela hloko ho feto-fetoha ha litsela le litefiso tse eketsehileng;buka sebaka esale pele.
5. Afrika le Latin America
• Kgolo e phahameng holikoloi, mechini, lisebelisoa tsa kaho, thepa ea kaho.
• Kgolo ea Afrika13.7%, Amerika boroa9.8%.
• Haholo-holoFCL, tumello e rarahaneng ea lekhetho.
• Khothaletsalitharollo tsa thepa tse emisang ntho e le 'ngoe.
6. United States
• Ho hlaphoheloa ha karolo e ka thoko empa ka sebopeho tlas'a khatello.
• Sekhahla sa kgolo se lebelletsweng ho ba haufi-5%ka 2026.
• Tsepamisa maikutlo holihlahisoa tse nang le boleng bo holimo, tse hlokomelang ho latela melao.
• Ntho ea bohlokoa ka ho fetisisa mabapi le thepa:Likepe tse potlakileng, taolo ea mocheso, ho latela maemo a holimo.
IV. Likhopotso tsa Bohlokoa tsa Thepa le Thomello ea Q1 ea 2026 (Tse Bohlokoa bakeng sa Litsebi tsa Khoebo ea Kantle ho Naha)
1. Morethetho oa Matsatsi a Phomolo a Mokete oa Selemo
• Lifeme li koetsoe bohareng ba Hlakola, li qala hape mafelong a Hlakola.
• Mehala ea ho romela thepa, likou, lekhetho le potolohang ka mosebetsi.
•Karolo ea pele ea Hlakola ke fensetere ea ho qetela ea ho romella thepa e kopaneng.
2. Sebaka le Litheko
• Pele ho matsatsi a phomolo: Sebaka se senyenyane litseleng tsa Boroa-bochabela ba Asia / Bochabela bo Hare.
• Kamora matsatsi a phomolo: Ho fola ka botlalo ka Hlakubele.
•Beha pele sebaka sa ho sireletsa bakeng sa lisebelisoa tse ncha tse tharo / tsa elektroniki tsa boleng bo holimo.
3. Mela e Khubelu ea ho Latela Melao
•Libetri tsa Lithium / Li-NEV: Sephutheloana sa thepa e kotsi, nomoro ea UN, phatlalatso e tsitsitseng — qoba ho koalloa ha lijana le likontena.
•Thepa ea khoebo ea inthanete: Matshwao a kgwebo a pele ho tlhahlobo, tlōlo ya molao, disetifikeiti, ditlhoko tsa lekgetho la sebaka seo thepa e yang ho sona.
4. Leano le sa tsitsang
•Mekhahlelo ea phetoho e phahameng: Matlo a polokelo a kantle ho naha a rekisoa pele ho matsatsi a phomolo, a romellwa ka kotloloho kamora matsatsi a phomolo.
•Likonteraka tsa thepa e ngata / tsa nako e teleleSebaka sa bukaMatsatsi a 10–15 esale pele, qoba ho tlala moferefere letsatsing la pele ha o kgutlela mosebetsing.
Kakaretso ea V.: Qalo e Matla ea 2026 — Tsepamisa maikutlo Meleng e 3 e Meholo
1. Shebana le Makala a Kgolo e Phahameng: Tse Tharo tse Ncha, ICT ea Elektroniki, Mechine le Kaho ea Likepe (Tiisetso e Phahameng ka ho Fetisisa)
2. Limmaraka tse Hlahang tse Khethiloeng: ASEAN, Russia, Bochabela bo Hare, Afrika (Khōlo e Potlakileng ka ho Fetisisa)
3. Sebelisa Melemo ea Thepa: Sireletsa sebaka pele ho matsatsi a phomolo, beha melao pele, beha polokelo ea kantle ho naha, etsa hore ho be le ponahalo ea ho tloha qalong ho isa qetellong
Selemo sa Pere se fihlile. Ho khetha mefuta e nepahetseng ea lihlahisoa = halofo ea ntoa e hlotsoeng. Ho khetha molekane ea nepahetseng oa thepa = leeto le se nang matšoenyeho.
Nako ea poso: Hlakola-28-2026